IEA releases Oil Market Report for June

Unexpected supply cuts and outages in North America, Africa and South America dampen global production forecasts

14 June 2016

Outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries cut global oil supply by nearly 0.8 mb/d in May. At 95.4 mb/d, output stood 590 kb/d below a year earlier – the first significant drop since early 2013. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to return in 2017 at a modest 0.2 mb/d, after declining by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report  (OMR) for June informs subscribers.
 
OPEC crude output fell by 110 kb/d in May to 32.61 mb/d as big losses in Nigeria due to oil sector sabotage more than offset higher Middle East output. Iran has clearly emerged as OPEC’s fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated gain of 700 kb/d.
 
Global oil demand growth in 1Q16 has been revised upwards to 1.6 mb/d and for 2016 growth will now be 1.3 mb/d. In 2017 we will see the same rate of growth and global demand will reach 97.4 mb/d. Non-OECD nations will provide most of the expected gains in both years. The growth rate is slightly above the previous trend, mostly due to relatively low crude oil prices.
 
Commercial inventories in the OECD increased from March levels by 14.4 mb to stand at 3 065 mb by end-April, an impressive 222 mb above one year earlier. As the US driving season kicks off, OECD gasoline stocks stand above average levels and last year in absolute and days of forward demand terms. There is a similar picture in China.
 
Refinery runs in 2Q16 are suffering from deepening outages. Throughput is nearly flat year-on-year, as refiners finally catch up with maintenance postponed from 2015. The seasonal ramp-up to 3Q16 is expected to be the largest on record, surging by about 2.3 mb/d quarter-on-quarter.

 The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.

Photo: © Shutterstock.com

IEA brings together energy efficiency experts from across the globe

Over 100 participants from emerging and developing countries gather in Paris for training and discussion on energy efficiency policy

6 June 2016

Inaugurated in 2015, the annual IEA Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies Training event is the only one in the world dedicated to sharing experiences and promoting best practices for planning, implementing and evaluating energy efficiency policies in emerging economies. This year’s edition brought together over 100 participants from more than 40 emerging and developing countries, representing more than over half of the world’s total final energy consumption.

In opening the event, IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol reiterated the importance of the world’s “first fuel” for managing rising energy demand in a more cost-effective, sustainable and secure manner. He also stated the IEA’s commitment to becoming a global voice on energy efficiency.

The participants – energy efficiency professionals with expertise across a variety of sectors – will spend 3 days following in-depth training on energy efficiency policies for different end-use sectors: buildings, industry, transport, or lighting, appliances and equipment. The courses will feature sessions on prioritisation, toolkits for successful programmes, and best resources for implementation, monitoring and modification. The first session on “The Global Opportunity for Energy Efficiency” began with high-level interventions by  Ambassadors to the OECD from the Netherlands, Australia and Canada, as well as Brian Motherway, IEA Head of Energy Efficiency, Mark Radka, UNEP Head of Energy, Climate, and Technology and Nigel Jollands of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Site visits for each sector will provide participants the opportunity to see first-hand how energy efficiency measures are being implemented on the ground. The visits will include Bouygues Construction, Schneider Electric and Autolib.

The final day will focus on the theme of “Making More Energy Efficiency Happen”, including sessions on policy evaluation from “Strategy Development Solutions” as well as interventions from the World Bank on the role of communication strategies in supporting energy efficiency goals.

Over the past six years, more than 2 000 people from around the world have taken part in IEA Energy Training and Capacity Building Programme events, all targeted at central government officials and key national stakeholders, such as governmental executive agencies and the private sector.

Join the conversation at #EnergyEfficientWorld

 

Measuring the value of next-generation wind and solar power

As next-generation wind and solar power grows in the energy mix, a focus on their falling generation costs alone stops short of what is needed

2 June 2016

In a paper released today on the side-lines of the Clean Energy Ministerial in San Francisco, the International Energy Agency argues that a new phase of deployment in wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) – currently the fastest-growing sources of electricity globally – is emerging, in which wind and solar PV are technologically mature and economically affordable. However electricity generation from both technologies is constrained by the varying availability of wind and sunshine, which can make it more difficult to maintain the necessary balance between electricity supply and consumption.

As these variable renewables enter this next generation of deployment, the issue of system and market integration becomes a critical priority for renewables policy and energy policy more broadly. The paper highlights that this will require strategic action in three areas:

• System-friendly deployment, aiming to maximise the net benefit of wind and solar power for the entire system
• Improved operating strategies, such as advanced renewable energy forecasting and enhanced scheduling of power plants
• Investment in additional flexible resources, comprising demand-side resources, electricity storage, grid infrastructure and flexible generation

In addition, the paper argues that unlocking the contribution of system-friendly deployment calls for a paradigm shift in the economic assessment of wind and solar power. The traditional focus on the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) – a measure of cost for a particular generating technology at the level of a power plant – is no longer sufficient. Next-generation approaches need to factor in the system value of electricity from wind and solar power – the overall benefit arising from the addition of a wind or solar power generation source to the power system. System value is determined by the interplay of positives and negatives including reduced fuel costs, reduced carbon dioxide and other pollutant emissions costs, or higher costs of additional grid infrastructure.

In addition to general analysis and recommendations, the paper also includes summaries of three case studies in China, Denmark and South Africa..

Next-Generation Wind and Solar Power: from Cost to Value
is available for free download here.

 

IEA releases Oil Market Report for June

Unexpected supply cuts and outages in North America, Africa and South America dampen global production forecasts

14 June 2016

Outages in OPEC and non-OPEC countries cut global oil supply by nearly 0.8 mb/d in May. At 95.4 mb/d, output stood 590 kb/d below a year earlier – the first significant drop since early 2013. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to return in 2017 at a modest 0.2 mb/d, after declining by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report  (OMR) for June informs subscribers.

OPEC crude output fell by 110 kb/d in May to 32.61 mb/d as big losses in Nigeria due to oil sector sabotage more than offset higher Middle East output. Iran has clearly emerged as OPEC’s fastest source of supply growth this year, with an anticipated gain of 700 kb/d.

Global oil demand growth in 1Q16 has been revised upwards to 1.6 mb/d and for 2016 growth will now be 1.3 mb/d. In 2017 we will see the same rate of growth and global demand will reach 97.4 mb/d. Non-OECD nations will provide most of the expected gains in both years. The growth rate is slightly above the previous trend, mostly due to relatively low crude oil prices.

Commercial inventories in the OECD increased from March levels by 14.4 mb to stand at 3 065 mb by end-April, an impressive 222 mb above one year earlier. As the US driving season kicks off, OECD gasoline stocks stand above average levels and last year in absolute and days of forward demand terms. There is a similar picture in China.

Refinery runs in 2Q16 are suffering from deepening outages. Throughput is nearly flat year-on-year, as refiners finally catch up with maintenance postponed from 2015. The seasonal ramp-up to 3Q16 is expected to be the largest on record, surging by about 2.3 mb/d quarter-on-quarter.

 The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead. To subscribe, click here.

Photo: © Shutterstock.com